Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 36.544972 39.856933 43.509154 47.869796 52.981119 58.842157 66.160291
2025-03-16 30.404350 34.435534 39.173277 45.256524 53.022282 62.848393 76.658461
2025-03-23 27.998114 32.577432 38.215915 45.870242 56.339660 70.760503 93.401325
2025-03-30 25.797787 30.583615 36.672863 45.281649 57.690982 75.988070 107.591499
2025-04-06 24.161069 29.084162 35.520420 44.939340 59.157617 81.476108 123.811843
2025-04-13 22.250163 27.040149 33.410281 42.941320 57.773087 82.071590 131.389130
2025-04-20 21.657927 26.691568 33.557609 44.181018 61.512559 91.934231 161.287541
2025-04-27 20.756127 25.839649 32.902828 44.106908 63.057656 98.200253 186.705869
2025-05-04 20.526053 25.893758 33.536199 46.074226 68.373481 113.168202 245.309872
2025-05-11 19.860668 25.276169 33.114234 46.273294 70.520839 122.193424 295.569387
2025-05-18 19.532484 25.118687 33.363371 47.597623 75.008647 138.094587 393.165450
2025-05-25 18.721838 24.202110 32.370552 46.676424 74.868398 142.527434 448.637490
2025-06-01 17.696009 23.035982 31.101351 45.504044 74.807784 149.481509 552.954893
2025-06-08 16.474125 21.527504 29.215872 43.094779 71.847968 147.731783 607.527753
2025-06-15 15.974838 21.077096 28.984667 43.661813 75.546713 168.181628 980.485807
2025-06-22 15.317238 20.338568 28.217092 43.118073 76.574790 180.884714 1474.487613
2025-06-29 14.763008 19.726046 27.608671 42.801693 78.088845 196.801126 2614.283114
2025-07-06 13.990689 18.731850 26.291782 40.952724 75.387222 194.283881 3200.646382
2025-07-13 13.783687 18.618858 26.463729 42.100404 80.746570 231.881065 28958.537965
2025-07-20 13.396677 18.195803 26.067100 42.031838 82.822301 256.875911 NaN
2025-07-27 13.319527 18.266832 26.538651 43.850178 90.902346 330.575904 NaN
2025-08-03 13.010696 17.940847 26.274446 44.033962 94.117637 380.807321 NaN
2025-08-10 12.859979 17.867789 26.462728 45.255644 101.189581 487.960902 NaN